Hydrogen System Modeling

Fraunhofer conducts major system modeling studies for federal ministries and advisory councils – including long-term scenarios, TransHyDE, the Ariadne project, and work for the National Hydrogen Council. These studies serve as key decision-making tools for shaping national hydrogen strategies and provide industry with planning certainty by anticipating political developments and identifying possible courses of action. For example, long-term scenarios form the strategic basis for the BMWK’s energy and hydrogen system planning within the national system development strategy. For industry partners like Uniper, Fraunhofer has been delivering long-term energy demand forecasts including hydrogen for over 15 years. These continuously updated forecasts serve as the foundation for robust and forward-looking investment decisions and strategic capacity planning, with increasing focus on hydrogen in recent years. Fraunhofer also conducts specific potential analyses for industrial hydrogen users (e.g., Thüga, Salzgitter AG), providing detailed and reliable decision-making support by integrating infrastructure availability, technological constraints, and individual demand – thereby facilitating entry into hydrogen use. In addition, Fraunhofer supports the resilient transformation of industrial sectors to hydrogen, such as the steel industry (e.g., ArcelorMittal, hyBit project), by designing hydrogen-based steel production systems that factor in both internal and external influences (stress scenarios) to enhance resilience. Furthermore, Fraunhofer conducts global-national and site-specific market and potential analyses (e.g., PtX Atlas, HyPat, H2GlobalmeetsAfrica, HySecunda, HyGATE, Power-to-MEDME, country-specific transition scenarios), accounting for infrastructure, sustainability criteria, certification and regulatory requirements, and ramp-up strategies. These studies enable companies to make strategic location decisions and implement market- and compliance-aligned hydrogen strategies by providing well-founded assessments of international opportunities and risks.